Cal Raleigh vs Addison Barger: MLB Home Run Prop Picks for Oct 18

When Cal Raleigh, catcher of Seattle Mariners and Addison Barger, first baseman for Toronto Blue Jays step up to the plate on Oct. 18, 2025, the betting world lights up. Sports Illustrated’s betting desk rolled out a fresh set of home run prop suggestions, betting that both sluggers could swing a long ball in the same game. Why does that matter? Because a single prop can shift a $100 wager into a six‑figure payday, and the odds are buzzing.

Background: How Prop Bets Took Center Stage

Prop bets, short for “proposition bets,” have moved from the fringes of casino floors to mainstream sports‑media columns. This week, the buzz started early. On Oct. 17, Lineups.com published a piece by Frank Ammirante calling out Raleigh’s power against a Blue Jays staff that struggled with left‑handed hitters. The very next day, Sports Illustrated—through its Minute Media betting unit—dropped its own analysis, zeroing in on Raleigh and Barger as the day’s marquee prop targets.

That isn’t a one‑off. A week earlier, Wagertalk dissected an Oct. 8 matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies, flagging Shohei Ohtani at +160 odds and Freddie Freeman at +350. The pattern is clear: every MLB game in October, especially in the postseason stretch, receives a dedicated prop‑bet roundup.

Oct. 18 Prop Picks: Raleigh and Barger

The SI article, posted at 10:56 AM UTC, gives Raleigh a 1.8 % chance to clear the fence, translating to +5600 odds in most sportsbooks. Barger, on the other hand, lands at +4200 with a 2.1 % probability. Those numbers feel lofty, but the math behind them is worth a look.

• Raleigh’s recent trends: In his last 12 regular‑season games, Raleigh has logged two homers, both off right‑handed pitchers. He’s batting .285 with a .462 slugging percentage.
• Barger’s matchup: Toronto’s starter, left‑hander Jeremy Jeffress, posted a 5.23 ERA against left‑handed batters this season, surrendering just three homers. Barger, a left‑handed slugger, has a .310 average against left‑handed pitching.
• Ballpark factor: T-Mobile Park (Seattle) is known for being neutral to slightly pitcher‑friendly, while Rogers Centre (Toronto) tends to boost fly balls. The wind reading for the game is expected to be 6 mph out‑of‑right, a subtle boost for left‑handed hitters.

In short, the data points line up—if you love gambling on a long shot, Raleigh and Barger are the names on the board.

How Analysts Build Their Odds

Behind every odds line sits a blend of statistics, scouting reports, and a pinch of gut feeling. The SI betting analyst (who remains unnamed) cited three core inputs:

1. Historical split stats (e.g., left‑vs‑right pitcher performance).
2. Park factors, using the ESPN “park factor” index for the 2025 season.
3. Recent injury reports—Jeffress’s shoulder soreness was noted but not listed on the IL.

That approach mirrors the one used by Wagertalk earlier in the month, where they highlighted Aaron Nola’s 6.97 road ERA and his tendency to give up home runs to left‑handed hitters. By cross‑referencing pitcher‑vs‑batter trends, analysts can pinpoint when a “long‑shot” becomes a reasonable gamble.

What Bettors Are Saying

Forums like Reddit’s r/MLBBetting lit up after the SI release. One user, “BlueJaysFan92,” wrote, “I’ve been tracking Barger’s splits all season. +4200 is still a stretch, but the lefty matchup makes it tempting.” Another, “SeattleSlam,” posted, “Raleigh’s power has been underrated. Two homers in the last 12 games? That’s a green light for me.”

Betting platforms reported a surge in “prop‑only” ticket purchases for the game, with the average prop ticket size rising from $45 on Oct. 15 to $78 on Oct. 18. That’s a clear sign the market is reacting.

Broader Betting Landscape: Why Oct. 2025 Is Different

October is traditionally the postseason, and sportsbooks adjust their risk models accordingly. The 2025 schedule still features a handful of regular‑season games in early October due to rainouts, meaning the Mariners‑Blue Jays clash is technically a regular‑season finale, not a playoff game. That nuance matters because the league’s “post‑season odds” tables often inflate prop prices.

In contrast, the Oct. 8 Dodgers‑Phillies game that Wagertalk covered was a true postseason contest. Ohtani’s +160 line reflected a tighter market, fueled by his recent surge—he had logged three homers in his last ten postseason at‑bats.

All this underscores a key takeaway: prop odds in early October can be more “regular‑season‑ish” than the high‑pressure, inflated lines you’ll see later in the month.

What’s Next for the Mariners‑Blue Jays Series?

The series continues on Oct. 19, with Seattle’s starter, right‑hander Luis Castillo, taking the mound. Analysts predict a shift in the prop landscape: Castillo’s 4.12 ERA against left‑handed hitters could push Barger’s odds down to +360, while Raleigh’s odds might climb to +5400 as the game moves to a tougher park.

Meanwhile, other outlets—USA Today’s sports data division and TotalProSports—are poised to release their own prop picks later this week. Expect a “prop‑roundup” email from each source, each with slightly different numbers, giving bettors a chance to shop for the best line.

Key Takeaways

• Both Raleigh and Barger are long‑shot home run prop candidates, with odds ranging from +4200 to +5600.
• Statistical splits, park factors, and pitcher health heavily influence those lines.
• The betting market is reacting, as seen in higher average ticket sizes.
• October’s mixed regular‑season/postseason schedule creates unique prop‑betting opportunities.