Blake Snell Emerges as Dark Horse MVP in 2025 World Series
Oct, 25 2025
When Blake Snell, the left‑handed ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers, steps onto the mound for Game 3 of the 2025 World SeriesLos Angeles, he’s being touted as a dark‑horse World Series MVP candidate. Across the diamond, the Toronto Blue Jays are fighting back, but odds analysts like Will Hill of the Bear Bets Podcast and Sean Zerillo of Action Network are already penciling in Snell at +1900 to +2000 on major sportsbooks as of Oct 23‑24, 2025. The numbers matter because a five‑game Dodgers sweep (+330) would give Snell the chance to notch two wins, a path that previously earned Stephen Strasburg and Cole Hamels MVP honors.
Why Snell’s Postseason Numbers Turn Heads
Snell entered the postseason with a pristine 3‑0 record and a 0.86 ERA over 21 innings. He surrendered just six hits, two earned runs and struck out 28 batters while walking only five. In plain language, that’s a strikeout‑minus‑walk rate just under 32% – a metric that analysts love because it shows domination without waste.
“He’s been laser‑focused,” Hill told the Bear Bets Podcast on Oct 23. “When you see a starter keep the opposition under .200 batting average across three starts, you start dreaming about MVP.” Zerillo echoed the sentiment in a piece for Action Network on Oct 25, noting that Snell’s WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) sits at 0.52, the lowest of any pitcher in a World Series since 2005.
Those stats aren’t just numbers; they translate to real pressure on the Blue Jays’ lineup. Toronto has struggled against left‑handed arms all season, hitting .228 versus lefties while posting a slugging percentage of .342. Snell’s curveball, which averages 81 mph, has been a nightmare for left‑handed batters, inducing a swing‑and‑miss rate of 45%.
Betting Markets and What the Odds Reveal
As of 1:30 p.m. PT on Oct 23, DraftKings listed Snell at +1900, FanDuel at +2000 and bet365 at +2000. By contrast, the top MVP bets – Shohei Ohtani (+160‑165) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+600) – sit in the traditional favorite range.
Why does a +1900 line matter? A $10 wager returns $190 if Snell lands the award. Hill argues that the payout is “sweet enough to justify the risk” because the Dodgers are projected to close the series in five games – a scenario that gives Snell two starts (Games 3 and 5) and a realistic chance to secure both wins.
Oddsmakers also factor in the Dodgers’ week‑long rest after sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS. That extra arm‑time means Snell is fresh, whereas the Blue Jays’ rotation is coming off a grueling seven‑game ALCS that ended with a three‑run homer by George Springer in the bottom of the seventh.
- DraftKings: +1900 (Oct 23, 1:30 p.m. PT)
- FanDuel: +2000 (Oct 23)
- bet365: +2000 (Oct 24)
- Dodgers series win odds: +330 (5‑game sweep)
- Blue Jays series win odds: +1200 (7‑game series)
Historical Precedent: Pitchers Who Won MVP
The only pitchers to win World Series MVP since 2000 are Stephen Strasburg (2019) and Cole Hamels (2012). Both earned the honor by winning two games in a series that ended in five or six contests. Strasburg’s two victories came in Games 1 and 5, while Hamels was dominant in Games 1 and 5 of the 2012 series.
What those cases share is a clear narrative: a starter who not only pitches well but also swings the momentum. If Snell repeats that script, his odds could compress dramatically – think +500 or better – once the series reaches Game 4.
That historical thread makes bettors nervous and excited. “You never know when a dark horse will jump out of the shadows,” Zerillo warned on Oct 25. “If the Dodgers close out in five, Snell’s name will be everywhere.”
Injuries, Matchups, and the Blue Jays’ Vulnerabilities
Toronto’s shortstop Bo Bichette suffered a bruised hip while rounding third in the ALCS Game 7. He’s listed as “questionable” for the World Series, and early scouting reports suggest he may sit out the first two games. That opens a hole in the middle of the lineup, especially against left‑handed pitching.
Moreover, the Blue Jays have a left‑handed batting average of .215 compared to the league average of .244. Their power numbers drop sharply as well – only eight home runs have come off left‑handed starters this season.
By contrast, the Dodgers’ offensive firepower remains intact. Freddie Freeman is batting .326 with a .587 slugging percentage, and Aaron Judge (acquired at the trade deadline) has added 12 homers in his last 30 games. Those weapons, combined with Snell’s left‑handed delivery, create a classic left‑right matchup advantage.
What the Next Few Days Could Mean for the Odds
If the Dodgers drop Game 1, the narrative shifts. Snell’s odds could slip as the series leans toward a longer, seven‑game battle, making a two‑win MVP path less likely. In that scenario, some bettors, including Zerillo, start eyeing Shu‑nob Yamamoto at +3500, betting on the Japanese ace to become a surprise hero.
Conversely, a Dodgers win in Game 1 or 2 would cement the five‑game sweep forecast. Market analysts predict Snell’s odds could tighten to around +1200 by the time Game 4 rolls around, especially if he collects his first series win in Game 3.
Regardless of the outcome, the betting community will watch the innings‑by‑innings drama closely. As Hill put it, “Baseball’s a game of tiny edges, and Snell’s edge is huge right now.”
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Blake Snell’s MVP candidacy affect Dodgers fans?
Fans get an extra storyline to cheer about. If Snell wins two games and claims MVP, it adds a heroic narrative that could boost viewership, merchandise sales, and overall excitement around the Dodgers’ championship run.
What are the key statistics that make Snell a dark horse?
Three straight wins, a 0.86 ERA, 28 strikeouts, five walks, a 0.52 WHIP and a strikeout‑minus‑walk rate of just under 32% in the 2025 postseason. Those figures outpace every other pitcher in the series so far.
Who else has won World Series MVP as a pitcher?
Since 2000 only Stephen Strasburg (2019) and Cole Hamels (2012) have captured the MVP while being a starting pitcher. Both earned it by winning two games in a series that ended in five or six games.
What impact could Bo Bichette’s injury have on the series?
If Bichette misses the first two games, the Blue Jays lose a key middle‑of‑the‑order bat who hits left‑handed pitching well. That could weaken Toronto’s offense against Snell and other left‑handed Dodgers starters, tilting the odds further in LA’s favor.
How might the odds shift if the Dodgers lose Game 1?
A loss would likely push Snell’s MVP odds higher (longer payout) because a longer series reduces his chance of pitching two wins. Analysts like Zerillo say bettors would then look to alternatives such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose odds could drop to around +3500.